2026: The year AI’s impact becomes impossible to ignore
Ben Rogoff
Partner
Alastair Unwin
Partner
We believe artificial intelligence (AI) is the next general-purpose technology and a rare example of discontinuous technology change around which all industries will be reshaped. AI demand is accelerating and outpacing supply despite material AI infrastructure investments – we expect this dynamic to continue into 2026 as we believe we are in the early phases of a major infrastructure investment cycle with significant upside to consensus capital expenditure estimates.
We do not believe we are in an AI bubble.
After a top-heavy 2024, during which the largest technology stocks dominated returns, the market saw a change in leadership in 2025 as the Magnificent Seven and market-cap-weighted technology indices no longer prove as good a conduit for AI. This has led to a richer environment for stock selection, which we expect to persist into 2026.
We expect 2026 to be the year when the capabilities of these models become unmistakable Rapid technological change plays to our strength and experience as one of the largest technology investment teams globally, with 11 dedicated portfolio managers/analysts. Eight years managing a dedicated AI fund has also shaped our investment perspective and focus while giving us invaluable insights.
We are excited about the application of AI within our own investment process and intend to use this to further differentiate and ‘turbocharge’ our approach.
While we expect our bullish outlook to be periodically tested by bouts of volatility, we remain AI maximalists. Discontinuous technological progress is difficult to grasp and even harder to predict. AI is advancing at extraordinary speed; we expect 2026 to be the year when the capabilities of these models become unmistakable and the impact of AI increasingly impossible for investors across all sectors to ignore.
Ben joined Polar Capital in May 2003. He is lead manager of Polar Capital Technology Trust plc and is a Fund Manager of the Polar Capital Global Technology Fund and Polar Capital Artificial Intelligence Fund.
Prior to joining Polar Capital, Ben began his career in fund management at CMI, as a global technology analyst. He moved to Aberdeen Asset Managers in 1998 where he spent four years as a senior technology manager.
Alastair Unwin, CFA
Alastair joined Polar Capital in June 2019 as a Fund Manager. Prior to joining Polar Capital, Alastair co-managed the Arbrook American Equities Fund. Between 2014 and 2018 he launched and then managed the Neptune Global Technology Fund and managed the Neptune US Opportunities Fund. Prior to Neptune, Alastair was a technology analyst at Herald Investment Management.